NBER Business Cycles

In class, we used data from The Great Depression to the present to calculate a few statistics on recessions.

Using the same data sheet, for the expansionary phase of the business cycle (trough to peak) calculate:

in months…

Minimum

Maximum

Range

Mean

Median

Mode

Using these statistics and the last business cycle trough, predict when the next peak will be.

Caveat: this is not an approved way to forecast, but it will generate discussion.